You are all idiots. Republicans always field 12 candidates then people jump from one to another every 2 or 3 months. /pol/ gets all lubed up about a candidate leading the polls a whole year before the election, like it means something. In 2011 Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and other meme candidates all led at some point. Then after a month or two people get bored of the meme candidate and they jump to the next meme candidate.
You all got so happy about trump, like he wasn't a meme candidate. Leading the polls in 2015 is almost a certain death sentence.
So now Carson is leading, great. Now all the spotlights will shine on him and he'll get torn apart.
To win a candidate needs to take the lead at the start of 2016 and he needs to be a "safe" candidate like Jeb or Rubio.